In April, we wrote about the introduction of a €3 duty on low-value shipments to the EU and its potential impact on international logistics. The new rules took effect on July 1, 2026—and we can now assess the initial results.
How the market changed after the introduction of the €3 duty
According to Rotate, e-commerce imports into the EU fell by 24% in July compared with June. Air cargo carriers responded by cutting flights: direct freighter capacity on the China — Europe route initially decreased by around 10% and is now already 28% below the June level.
Which hubs were affected the most
The largest declines were recorded at key e-commerce hubs:
- Madrid: -78%
- Liège: -35%
- Urumqi: -72%
- Hong Kong: -28%
The load factor of Boeing 747-400F aircraft on this route also decreased by 13.8%.
Will the market recover?
Rotate expects e-commerce flows to gradually recover over the next 12 months. This forecast is based on the experience of the US and Brazil, where the market also went through a period of sharp decline after changes to the rules for low-value shipments and then began to adapt.
What does this mean for business?
Fewer aircraft means longer transit times and less price flexibility. Companies importing goods from China to Europe or using the EU as part of their logistics route should review delivery schemes, flight availability, transit times, and budgets in advance.
You can check the current customs limits for international shipments and learn more about importing goods from abroad on the GlobalPost website.
Source: Air Cargo News
